ryanratings: 2009 Season Week 5 Ratings (through 10/3/2009)

Sunday, October 04, 2009

2009 Season Week 5 Ratings (through 10/3/2009)

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	0.985
2	Auburn	0.984
3	Florida	0.977
4	Texas	0.976
5	LSU	0.971
6	Boise St.	0.967
7	Kansas	0.964
8	TCU	0.946
9	Missouri	0.927
10	Iowa	0.924
11	Wisconsin	0.917
12	Cincinnati	0.910
13	South Fla.	0.902
14	Virginia Tech	0.881
15	Stanford	0.876
16	Ohio St.	0.864
17	Southern California	0.857
18	Oregon	0.849
19	Notre Dame	0.845
20	Penn St.	0.833
21	Nebraska	0.830
22	Miami (FL)	0.824
23	UCLA	0.820
24	Washington	0.815
25	Michigan	0.803
26	Arizona	0.796
27	Georgia Tech	0.790
28	South Carolina	0.785
29	Pittsburgh	0.772
30	Wake Forest	0.768
31	Georgia	0.758
32	Utah	0.753
33	Boston College	0.751
34	Connecticut	0.736
35	BYU	0.724
36	Baylor	0.719
37	Central Mich.	0.712
38	Mississippi	0.710
39	Idaho	0.709
40	Clemson	0.707
41	West Virginia	0.701
42	Tennessee	0.686
43	Northern Ill.	0.680
44	Michigan St.	0.679
45	North Carolina St.	0.671
46	Minnesota	0.665
47	Oklahoma	0.661
48	Oregon St.	0.655
49	Oklahoma St.	0.655
50	Houston	0.652
51	Fresno St.	0.650
52	Florida St.	0.650
53	Navy	0.646
54	California	0.645
55	Arkansas	0.633
56	Mississippi St.	0.630
57	Arizona St.	0.585
58	Kentucky	0.577
59	North Carolina	0.566
60	Indiana	0.562
61	Middle Tenn. St.	0.542
62	Air Force	0.537
63	Texas Tech	0.536
64	Southern Miss.	0.536
65	Texas A&M	0.531
66	Louisiana Tech	0.530
67	Rutgers	0.527
68	Colorado St.	0.522
69	La.-Lafayette	0.521
70	Ohio	0.517
71	Kansas St.	0.514
72	Syracuse	0.504
73	Purdue	0.501
74	Iowa St.	0.497
75	UTEP	0.495
76	Nevada	0.485
77	Arkansas St.	0.484
78	Northwestern	0.474
79	Vanderbilt	0.466
80	Illinois	0.464
81	Troy	0.454
82	East Carolina	0.429
83	Tulsa	0.424
84	La.-Monroe	0.421
85	Bowling Green	0.410
86	Marshall	0.409
87	Duke	0.405
88	UCF	0.404
89	San Diego St.	0.393
90	Akron	0.380
91	San Jose St.	0.365
92	Louisville	0.356
93	Toledo	0.353
94	SMU	0.347
95	Western Mich.	0.343
96	Virginia	0.338
97	Maryland	0.333
98	Wyoming	0.331
99	Colorado	0.329
100	Utah St.	0.327
101	UNLV	0.321
102	Temple	0.313
103	Kent St.	0.306
104	UAB	0.301
105	Hawaii	0.298
106	North Texas	0.287
107	Tulane	0.260
108	Washington St.	0.236
109	Buffalo	0.226
110	Memphis	0.213
111	New Mexico St.	0.185
112	Army	0.177
113	Fla. Atlantic	0.135
114	Western Ky.	0.040
115	Eastern Mich.	0.035
116	FIU	0.026
117	Miami (OH)	0.024
118	Ball St.	0.021
119	New Mexico	0.015
120	Rice	0.011

How it works

For each team, two raw ratings are calculated; one dependent only upon wins and losses (the "W/L rating"), and the other dependent upon margin of victory (the "MOV rating"). The W/L rating for each team is simply the number of games won divided by the number of games played. The MOV rating is more complicated. I assume that a team's expected margin of victory can be modeled by a normal distribution. The distribution's mean is set equal to the average margin of victory achieved by the team over all of its games in the season. The distribution's variance is set equal to the variance of the team's margin of victory in each of its games. Based on this distribution, I calculate the probability that the team will achieve a positive margin of victory against generic opposition. This probability is the team's MOV rating.

The true "base rating" is then calculated by combining the W/L rating with the MOV rating. This combination is intended to dampen the effects of a team's running up the score, while also admitting the difference between a close game and a blowout.

Finally, the team's base rating is adjusted by the strength of its schedule. In the first round of calculations, schedule strength is set equal to the average base rating of each of the team's opponents. The team's first adjusted base rating (FABR) is then calculated by adjusting its base rating up or down depending on how strong or how weak its opposition was, as determined by this metric. In the next round, the FABRs of the team's opposition are averaged to calculate strength of schedule, and the team's base rating is again adjusted accordingly to determine the team's second adjusted base rating. I repeat this process twenty-five times so that the ratings will converge. The twenty-fifth adjusted base rating is the rating reported here.

With respect to overtime games, in calculating the MOV rating, I use the score at the end of four quarters, but in calculating the W/L rating, I treat an overtime win or loss just as I would any other win or loss.

New for 2009: Until this season, I didn't count games against non-FBS competition for any purpose. Starting in 2009, I treat games between FBS and non-FBS teams the same way as I treat games between two FBS teams, except that all non-FBS teams are aggregated for purposes of calculating schedule strength.

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Sunday, October 04, 2009

2009 Season Week 5 Ratings (through 10/3/2009)